May 2, 2022
The Philippine election is only days away. The
highly popular President Duterte is likely to be succeeded by the Marcos
campaign, which will build on his legacies.
DESPITE legal and political ploys against his
campaign and assassination threats against his life, ex-senator Ferdinand
"Bongbong" Marcos Jr., the son of the controversial president Ferdinand
Marcos Sr. (1965 to 1986), has consolidated his lead in the presidential polls
(currently 57 percent of preferences). (See figure 1.)
FIGURE 1 PHILIPPINE 2022 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
PREFERENCES
Source: Difference Group Ltd.; data from
PUBLiCUS Asia, Oct. 1, 2021 - April 21, 2022
After the 2016 meltdown of the Liberal Party (LP), its aging stalwarts have promoted Maria Leonor "Leni" Robredo (23 percent), the incumbent vice president. But the effort to sell the polarizing Robredo as a "unity candidate" has failed. And other candidates attract only marginal support.
As the share of the undecided has shrunk, Marcos
is the effective winner, assuming no last-minute political drama. Similarly,
his political partner, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, the daughter of
the incumbent president, dominates the vice presidential campaign (58 percent).
The Marcos-Duterte campaign benefits from a
vital regional "lock." As the former governor of Ilocos Norte
province, Marcos has a strong foothold in the north. Duterte dominates the
south. And both are highly popular in Metro Manila.
Geopolitics, rearmament, nuclear weapons
Through her campaign, Leni Robredo has hoped
to re-rebalance Manila toward Washington. In this quest, she has been supported
by ex-Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio, the vocal proponent of the
"West Philippine Sea," and ex-Foreign secretary Albert del Rosario, a
millionaire businessman-politician. They are the key players in the liberal
anti-China coalition.
These efforts have been fostered by del
Rosario's "think-tank" ADRi, whose parent Stratbase is linked with
the US-based Bower Group Asia and the Washington-based Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), which is funded by US defense contractors. ADRi
has tried to "make China the issue of 2022."
When del Rosario served as Foreign secretary,
the Philippines filed the arbitration case against China. It was followed by
the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which reopened the
country to US military, ships and planes.
Today, the US-Philippines Visiting Forces
Agreement (VFA) is back in effect, thanks to Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin
Jr., Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Romualdez, Carpio, del Rosario and
certain oligarch support. Last fall, Locsin welcomed the new trilateral
security pact between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia
(Aukus), which violates the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty.
The Philippines also agreed to hold over 300 military activities with the US in
2022.
Setting aside patriotism vows, del Rosario's
business associates in mining and oil extraction could gain hugely from
concession rights in the South China Sea.
Opposition's 'proxy campaign'
Effectively, Robredo's campaign is something
of a proxy effort. It is supported by the media that portray themselves as
"independent," yet are funded by the National Endowment for Democracy
(NED), which is financed largely by the US Congress.
According to the NED database, several
Philippine media have received funds in the past three to five years, around
$330,000 to $430,000 each, including Rappler, the Center for Media Freedom and
Responsibility (CMFR), the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism
(PCIJ), and to a lesser degree, Mindanews. Since local per capita incomes are
less than 5 percent of those in the US, the funds employ hundreds.
However, these funds make up only $1.3 million
of NED's total Philippine awards ($6.8 million). Some $4.5 million of the NED
total goes to non-media organizations, including the "Young Leaders for
Good Governance Fellowship" (YLGGY), which has netted $300,000. In the
Philippines, it is depicted as a program of the Jesse Robredo Foundation, which
honors Robredo's late husband and is controlled by her family members. In the
US, the YLGGY is promoted as a project of the International Republican
Institute (IRI), one of the NED's four subsidiaries. It is thus not entirely
clear whose national interest the YLGGY represents.
Indeed, despite stated transparency, these
organizations and their money flows are clouded by murkiness (Figure 2).
FIGURE 2 ROBREDO'S CAMPAIGN: MONIES AND MEDIA
US government funds are only a part of the proxy monies. Along with billionaire investor George Soros' Open Society initiatives, other private "philanthropies" play a role as well. Rappler has been financed by the secretive billionaire, Pierre Omidyar, a supporter of "pro-democracy" regime change in several countries. In addition to media exposure by the NED-funded media, the Robredo campaign has been fueled by CNN Philippines, Philippine Star, Philippine Daily Inquirer and other media, owned by local oligarchs or family dynasties.
Reportedly, the Robredo campaign has also
cultivated ties with far-left insurgents (which it has vehemently denied),
waging decades-long war against the Philippine government.
Building on policy continuity
In contrast, Marcos and Duterte hope to
consolidate the President's Build, Build, Build infrastructure initiatives,
while promoting investment on human capital and health care. They prioritize
the industrial, agricultural and tourism sector to create more jobs. They
support women's rights, legalizing divorce and abortion in severe cases.
In foreign policy, Marcos and Duterte would
retain military ties with the United States. However, they also plan to
continue to recalibrate the economic relationship with China, which has become
the Philippines' largest trading partner, the second-largest foreign investor
and the second-largest source of foreign tourists.
Eager to avoid military entanglements, Marcos
favors a non-confrontational stance with China. Overall, he wants to treat
other countries as "friends and hopefully allies."
Marcos and Duterte support regional
integration with their Southeast Asian peers. They stress Philippine interests
in the South China Sea but also the Asean talks with China hoping the bilateral
regional Code of Conduct (COC) would be completed soon.
The two shun the kind of rearmament drives and
nuclearization that would undermine efforts at accelerated economic development
in the region.
Last-minute 'surprises'?
At this point, only foul play could change the
expected outcome. There are concerns about the integrity of the Commissions on
Elections (Comelec) and its election technology, which suffered a huge data
breach in January that could affect the election.
Through Mark Malloch Brown, odd links prevail
between billionaire investor George Soros' Open Society Foundations (OSF),
Soros Fund Management and Comelec's election software (Smartmatic). In 1986,
Malloch Brown led Corazon Aquino's campaign against Ferdinand Marcos and his
ties have remained close with the Aquinos ever since. He is president of both
the US-based OSF and chairman of Smartmatic.
The big question is whether the Philippine
future will be driven by military pacts, which benefit just tiny economic
elites, or peaceful development, which fosters the living standards of most
Filipinos.
Rising prosperity is only viable through peace
and stability.
Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally
recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference
Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai
Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For
more, see https://www.differencegroup.net
The commentary is based on Dr Steinbock's
recent briefings, his op-ed in South China Morning Post ("Philippine
election offers opportunity to rethink the liberal narrative," April 29,
2022) and China-US Focus ("The Coming Marcos-Duterte Philippine Election
Triumph," April 29, 2022).
https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/05/02/opinion/columns/marcos-duterte-vs-robredos-proxy-campaign/1842004
