Political
Tidbits
Belinda
Olivarez-Cunanan
01
August 2013
www.polbits.com
I
had this strong déjà vu feeling in Phnom Penh as I listened to
claims of election irregularities and to Sam Rainsy’s plea for US
support for vote recount. US State Dept. sympathetic and insists on
credible elections. Rainsy luckier than us Filipinos: we have
documented all kinds of issues vs. Comelec but Chair Brillantes
simply stonewalls them---and no reaction from US.
Phnom
Penh, Cambodia---When I got the invitation from former Speaker Jose
de Venecia to join two distinguished groups of international
observers to the parliamentary elections in Cambodia last Sunday, I
grabbed the chance as I thought it would be a vacation of sorts, a
welcome relief from all the lousy news in Manila---the pork barrel
scam involving Congress, allegations about presidential sister Ballsy
Cruz and husband Eldon’s involvement in the Czech firm Inekon mess,
the ‘three kings’ operating in Customs, and of course, the
continuing unresolved controversies over cheatings in our May 13,
2013 automated elections, etc.
But
lo and behold, it only brought me this déjà vu feeling---like I
never left home. In Phnom Penh, monitors picked up issues of
not-so-indelible ink in some places and violence in some areas. In a
country of 9 million voters, the opposition claims 1.2 to 1.3 million
were unable to vote because their names were not on the list, while
about 1 million ghost names were on the voters' list.
Rumors
of impending cheating in various provinces by the ruling Cambodian
People's Party (CPP) had prompted saffron-robed Buddhist monks to
momentarily abandon their nirvana world and campaign for the
opposition coalition of returning exile Sam Rainsy (who, ironically,
wasn’t even a candidate in the elections). On election
morning our monitoring team came upon a group of monks patiently
sitting outside a precinct in a pagoda, armed with cell phones and
ready to report to the National Election Committee (NEC) if they
spotted fraud.
XXX
Before
the elections our observers’ group had an audience with the
ascetic-looking intellectual leader and former Finance Minister
Rainsy, who had hinted of the extreme scenario of people power should
his people be cheated by the CPP of Prime Minister Hun Sen. With the
circumstances of his return from four years of exile in France and
persuasive manner of talking, Rainsy reminded me a lot of Ninoy
Aquino.
Amidst
crowds vying for his attention I managed to get close enough to
whisper to Rainsy, “Sure, the way things are, people power could
crop up as a decided option for your party, but please don’t die as
your people need you,” and he smiled. I thought I detected the same
inevitable sense of destiny in him.
To
add to this sense of déjà vu, guess who was in Phnom Penh to join
his counterparts from the nine other ASEAN countries as guests of the
NEC?--- Comelec Chair Sixto Brillantes. But he had to rush back to
Manila to supervise the coming barangay elections, so mercifully our
paths didn’t cross.
XXX
Three
days after Cambodia’s elections things remain far from settled and
tension continues to lurk in the capital. A young Cambodian studying
to be a lawyer opined that if anything would break out, it will have
to be in the capital, not in the provinces.
Analysts
talk endlessly in coffee shops and in media about what lies ahead for
this once strife-torn nation. For this blogger, a veteran of
elections here and abroad for 30 years, it's clear that the broad
masses of Cambodians clamor not just for reforms but for change of
the dramatis personae.
The
CPP has become a party of mostly old politicians who had stayed too
long on the stage (when Ambassador Cunanan and I left 15 years ago
they were already the ruling elite, led by PM Hun Sen who has ruled
for the past 28 years). Moreover, their fabled lifestyle has shocked
the very poor comprising the overwhelming majority.
As
a foreign observer put it, politicians should know when their time is
up.
XXX
Sam
Rainsy's Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) coalition that enjoys
broad mass appeal especially among the youth, claims that based on
its followers’ tabulations from Phnom Penh and the provinces, CNRP
has actually garnered 63 seats in the 123-member National Assembly
vs. the NEC’s record of 55 votes for this party; whereas, says
Rainsy, CPP only bagged 60 seats, not 68 as NEC said. CPP also barely
squeaked by in the popular vote---48.7% vs. the CNRP's 44.5%
If
these claims of Rainsy are vaidated, this means CNRP now has control
of the National Assembly and should get to elect the PM who would
rule the country in the next five years.
Interestingly,
since the close of the elections, Hun Sen has not appeared publicly
and rumor swept the capital that he has fled the country. The
CPP denied it fast as psy-war tactic; nonetheless it appears to have
been shaken to its roots by the stunning doubling of victory by CNRP
despite Rainsy’s non-run (it was his deputy Kim Sokha who led the
candidates) and the CPP’s own loss of 22 seats that it had handily
won in 2008.
But
even more shocking, eight of the young, foreign-educated scions of
ruling elite families, whom their aging fathers had placed in middle
government positions in the hope that they would continue the
dynastic leadership of the country after them, all lost in the
elections.
It's
another deja vu for me---the dynasty issue is alive, but beginning to
crumble in Cambodia.
XXX
Sam
Rainsy’s claim of majority vote was turned down by the NEC
dominated by Hun Sen appointees and obviously he's not about to yield
power easily.
In
a press conference yesterday morning Rainsy appealed to the UN and
international watchdog organizations to mediate, as he demanded a
recount of votes to settle the score between the two rival
groups. Again, déjà vu, as visions of our own Comelec Chair
flashed before my eyes, demanding that complaining civic groups cough
up P200 million for a recount!
A
recount is not difficult under the Cambodian system as ballots are
short and contain only the names of accredited political parties;
there were eight accredited parties last Sunday and CPP was no. 4 and
CNRP no. 7, voters check only the favored party. It works much
like our voting for party-list groups.
XXX
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My
group of international monitors, led by former Speaker Joe de
Venecia, observed the counting in stiflingly hot classrooms with tiny
windows in a big school in the capital, together with various
local party representatives. The counting was over in an hour or so,
with party reps furnished copies of tabulated scores.
This
is so unlike our presidential system where ballots are kilometric
because they contain the names of candidates for innumerable posts.
The parliamentary system makes more sense---manually done and sans
the PCOS cheating machines.
XXX
The
problem now is whether Hun Sen’s party, which has monopolized power
for the past 28 years, would accede to a recount and possibly, given
the stunning closeness of Sunday’s elections, flirt with the real
danger of losing control of the National Assembly that elect the
country's rulers.
On
the night of the elections, buoyed up by terrific gains his party had
made, Rainsy spoke on TV of "peace and reconciliation" with
the ruling party which De Venecia's international monitors lauded
heartily as "timely and the need of the hour...a win-win
situation for all Cambodians."
But
last Monday morning, as reports of irregularities from the provinces
came in, Rainsy stopped talking of a political honeymoon. Early
last Tuesday he and his wife, opposition leader Tioulong Saumura,
were seen leaving the residence of US Ambassador William Todd and
popular speculation was that he sought the help of the US envoy to
get that vote recount.
XXX
Soon
enough a spokesperson from the US State Department in Washington
issued a statement expressing concern about the numerous reported
irregularities in the elections, including “systemic flaws such as
problems in the voter registry and unequal access to the media.”
While careful about being perceived as backing the opposition’s
call for an investigation “specifically,” nevertheless it safely
stressed the need “for a full and transparent investigation that
will be (viewed) as credible by the Cambodian people.”
In
this regard, I can only envy the Cambodian people, for we Filipinos
who had monitored our own national and local elections of last May
have grown hoarse presenting all manner of irregularities; yet
the US government, represented by Ambassador Harry Thomas, chose to
play the role of the traditional monkey in Asian fable---see no evil,
hear no evil, speak no evil.
Obviously
the US ploy is to protect the results as far back as our first fully
automated elections of 2010 that, in the light of so many revelations
that have since surfaced about the manipulable PCOS machines, have
seriously put into question the legitimacy of our top leadership
installed then. Why the US role of the traditional monkey? It's
all about the issue of basing and geopolitical realities.
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